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2025年12月,比特币主导地位仍超60%,机构资金持续流入BTC,而山寨币因流动性不足和监管不确定性表现疲软。历史数据显示,山寨季通常在比特币减半后6-12个月(即2025年5-9月)出现,但当前宏观环境(高利率、流动性紧缩)延迟了这一周期。
近期,美国SEC批准了XRP、DOGE等山寨币现货ETF,可能为市场注入新流动性,但效果尚未显现。若美联储2026年转向降息,风险偏好或回升,推动山寨币补涨。
结论:12月山寨季概率较低,需关注2026年初政策变化。短期建议以BTC为主,长期可布局优质山寨币。