tonight's US Department of Labor will release the December non-farm payroll data, which will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. The market generally expects the number of new jobs to decline significantly, with the unemployment rate remaining high. This data will directly determine the Federal Reserve's policy direction in the first quarter of next year.

Currently, the crypto circle is tense, with Ethereum repeatedly testing between $2900 and $3300, and the psychological threshold of $3000 is particularly critical. From on-chain performance, the ETH reserves on exchanges have fallen to historic lows, and leverage positions in the derivatives market are also retreating. The market is clearly preparing for upcoming volatility.

Non-farm payroll data may lead to three possible directions. First, if the data is far weaker than expected, it will indeed trigger a selling wave in the short term, but as expectations of rate cuts heat up, Ethereum's medium-term rebound space will open. Second, if the data meets expectations, the market may first fall into chaos, then enter a long consolidation phase. Finally, if the data is stronger than expected, it is clearly bad news for longs—large positions will be liquidated, and the decline may intensify.

Different trading styles require different strategies. Short-term traders should reduce leverage exposure before the data release, closely monitor key price breakouts, and set stop-loss orders in advance; long-term holders can accumulate in batches within the $2900 to $3000 range, focus on the fundamentals of Ethereum, and treat non-farm payroll data as short-term noise.

Regardless of the final outcome, maintaining rationality and good risk management in this market environment is most important. It is reasonable to oppose the Federal Reserve, but more dangerous to go against the trend. The key is to adjust your approach flexibly according to the actual market movements.