tonight at 8:30 pm, the United States will simultaneously release the non-farm payroll data for October and November—this delayed report could become a turning point for the market at the end of the year.

In terms of timing, it will be announced at 9:30 pm Beijing time (8:30 am Eastern Time). Due to the government shutdown causing the delay, this time the data for two months will be released together, and market expectations are quite divided. The median forecast for the increase in non-farm employment in November is 50,000, but the range varies from -20,000 to +130,000, with major investment banks each offering their own estimates—Moody's expects a decrease of 15,000, BNP Paribas predicts an increase of 20,000, DeCar, Standard Chartered, and Stifel all see 30,000, ING and Nomura forecast 40,000, Wells Fargo is more optimistic at 45,000, Citibank predicts 80,000, and TD Securities even expects an increase of 70,000. Such significant divergence indicates that the market is still gauging the true direction of US employment.

Regarding the unemployment rate, it is expected to rise to 4.5%, which would be a new high since 2021, with some institutions' forecasts ranging between 4.4% and 4.6%. As for average hourly earnings, the annual rate is expected to be 3.6%, with a monthly rate of about 0.3%. As for the delayed October data, most forecasts predict negative growth, likely between -10,000 and -60,000, with Citibank estimating -45,000, and TD Securities being more pessimistic at -60,000.

The reason this report is so critical is that during the government shutdown, the data collection process was extended, which may lead to statistical distortions. For cryptocurrencies, non-farm payroll data directly affects market expectations of the Federal Reserve's subsequent policies, especially the judgment of the easing space. If the data is weaker than expected, it could boost risk assets' rebound; conversely, it may trigger a correction.