The price movement of $RIVER has once again verified the power of the TWAP strategy—shorts have already cut their losses significantly. The current funding rate remains in an extremely negative range, reflecting an interesting game being played by market participants.

From the perspective of the spot and perpetual futures spread, the current approximately 3% spread, while narrowed somewhat, remains subtle in structure. Longs can continue to leverage the negative funding rate for reverse arbitrage, but the window for such opportunities is limited. Once the TWAP trading mechanism at a major exchange stops operating, the situation will quickly reverse, and longs will equally face difficulties. The thin order book means the market lacks sufficient liquidity buffers, amplifying the risk of price volatility. The entire market appears to be standing at a critical point—seemingly calm on the surface, but undercurrents flowing beneath.