فيوري يرفع توقعاته للاقتصاد الأمريكي، والتضخم لا يزال مصدر قلق - توقعات خفض الفائدة من الاحتياطي الفيدرالي تظهر في 2026

【Block Rhythm】

Fitch just released the latest version of its 2025-2026 U.S. economic forecasts. This update incorporates economic data that was delayed during the government shutdown at the end of last year.

The core figures are crucial: U.S. GDP growth expectations for 2025 have been raised from 1.8% in December to 2.1%, and for 2026 from 1.9% to 2.0%. It seems American economic resilience is quite strong. However, there’s a bit of trouble on the inflation front.

Regarding inflation, due to incomplete October data, it’s currently difficult to see the true trend clearly. However, forecasts show that the inflation rate has already risen to 3.0% by December 2025 (it was 2.7% in November), indicating that a rebound has begun. More strikingly, considering the lagged transmission effects of tariff policies, inflation will continue to rise in 2026, potentially reaching 3.2% by year-end. This will certainly put pressure on commodities and risk assets.

Employment remains relatively stable. Although employment growth is slowing, the decline in labor force growth is offsetting this effect, so the average unemployment rate in 2026 is expected to hold around 4.6%, basically with no significant changes.

Finally, there’s the Fed policy that markets care most about. Following this logic, the Fed is expected to make two rate cuts in the first half of 2026, reducing the federal funds rate ceiling to 3.25%. This will provide clear support for liquidity and asset valuations.