According to investment bank TD Cowen, the highly anticipated U.S. crypto market structure bill (the CLARITY Act) may see progress in 2026, but it is more likely to be delayed until 2027 for passage, with the final detailed implementation rules potentially not taking full effect until 2029.
This outlook stands in subtle contrast to the prevailing optimism in the market. In 2025, U.S. crypto policy has already shown a clear shift from "regulation by enforcement" to "market design," bringing the industry unprecedented clarity.
01 Core of the Bill and Current Status
The Digital Asset Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act) is regarded as a cornerstone piece of legislation for U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. Its primary goal is to resolve the long-standing issue of regulatory jurisdiction, clearly delineating the responsibilities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
According to the bill, mainstream digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) would be classified primarily as commodities, falling under CFTC oversight. Tokens with securities attributes would remain under the SEC’s jurisdiction.
The bill passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025. However, the Senate postponed its review at the end of 2025 to negotiate key issues such as decentralized finance (DeFi) regulation and market integrity.
White House crypto advisor David Sacks confirmed in December 2025 that the Senate is expected to hold hearings and deliberations in January 2026.
02 Impact and Uncertainty of the Delay
A potential delay in the bill’s passage will directly impact the strategic planning of all market participants. Previously, industry experts estimated a 50% to 60% chance of the bill passing before the November 2026 midterm elections.
Prolonged uncertainty around the regulatory framework may force some traditional financial institutions to slow down or temporarily shelve their comprehensive crypto business rollouts as they await clearer compliance guidance.
This extended "regulatory window" also creates an opportunity for different jurisdictions to attract projects and capital. U.S. states such as Texas, Arizona, and New Hampshire are actively exploring policies like establishing Bitcoin reserves and implementing tax exemptions.
03 Market Response and Resilience Test
Despite the potential for regulatory delays, the current cryptocurrency market continues to demonstrate strong resilience. As of January 6, 2026, the price of Bitcoin surged back to around $94,000, nearing its highest level in a month.
Ethereum also broke above the $3,200 mark for the first time in a month. According to market data, as of January 6, Ethereum’s real-time price was approximately $3,220.71.
Optimism in the options market is even more pronounced. Deribit data shows a large concentration of open interest in Bitcoin call options expiring on January 30 with a strike price of $100,000, indicating that traders are betting on Bitcoin returning to the $100,000 level.
04 Industry Strategies During the "Window Period"
While awaiting clear federal legislation, the crypto industry has not stood still; instead, it is actively engaging in internal development and strategic adjustments. Many serious industry participants are treating this "window period" as a valuable time for preparation.
A key strategy is proactively building internal governance frameworks that align with expected regulations. This includes designing transparent custody solutions, establishing robust risk control processes, and adopting disclosure practices that meet traditional financial standards. Success will no longer depend solely on technological innovation, but increasingly on meeting institutional capital’s stringent compliance and risk management requirements.
Meanwhile, industry consolidation and mainstream adoption have not slowed. Prominent public companies are making significant moves to incorporate crypto assets like Ethereum into their financial strategies.
05 Stablecoins Lead the Way and Future Outlook
Although the comprehensive market structure bill may be delayed, other areas of crypto regulation continue to advance. On July 18, 2025, the "Guiding and Enabling National Innovation in U.S. Stablecoins Act" (GENIUS Act) was signed into law by President Trump.
This act establishes the first comprehensive federal framework for payment stablecoins, requiring 1:1 high-quality asset reserves and strict consumer protection measures. This legislative progress signals that regulators are increasingly viewing stablecoins as payment and settlement infrastructure, rather than merely speculative tools.
Looking ahead, even in the face of delays, the overall direction of U.S. crypto regulation is becoming clear: a shift from confrontation to design, from ambiguity to clarity. For market participants like Gate, the greatest risk in 2026 and beyond may no longer be regulatory crackdowns, but rather a mismatch with the clear rules of the future.
Those companies able to proactively translate policy trends into robust business frameworks and compliance practices will be best positioned to seize the next wave of growth.
Outlook
The crypto market’s strong start to 2026 runs parallel to news of potential regulatory delays. On January 5, Bitcoin broke through $93,000 to hit a three-week high, with Ethereum also strengthening in tandem.
This suggests that market fundamentals and institutional interest are now providing independent support. While regulatory frameworks can offer long-term certainty and accelerate institutional adoption, innovation and demand themselves have become the core drivers propelling the industry forward.
