VanEck: Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050

On January 9th, VanEck released a new report on the long-term capital market assumptions for Bitcoin, forecasting strong growth for Bitcoin over the next few decades and outlining how institutional investors might allocate this asset within diversified portfolios. The report was authored by VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush. The model indicates that under a baseline scenario, Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050. This prediction implies an approximate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from current prices. The model assumes Bitcoin will account for 5–10% of global trade and become a reserve asset held by central banks, comprising 2.5% of their balance sheets. In a conservative (bear) scenario, Bitcoin’s annual growth would be only 2%, reaching about $130,000 per coin by 2050. Conversely, in an extremely bullish “Super Bitcoinization” scenario, where Bitcoin accounts for 20% of global trade and 10% of GDP, the theoretical price could reach $53.4 million per coin, corresponding to a 29% CAGR. The report emphasizes Bitcoin’s potential as a strategic, low-correlation asset within institutional portfolios. VanEck recommends allocating 1–3% of most diversified portfolios to Bitcoin. For investors with higher risk tolerance, historically increasing this allocation to 20% can optimize returns. VanEck believes Bitcoin is surpassing its speculative nature, with the potential to become a reserve asset and provide a hedge against currency devaluation, especially in developed markets facing high sovereign debt.