Last night, the U.S. stock market opened with an "epic" high and then plummeted, with Nvidia going over the mountain.

Last night, Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report combined with the “Goldilocks” US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data (new jobs exceeded expectations but the unemployment rate rose) created a double Favourable Information.

The three major U.S. stock indices opened significantly higher, with the S&P 500 index exceeding 1.4% at one point, and the Nasdaq index even soaring by 2.18%.

But by the end of the trading session, the market plunged across the board, with the S&P 500 index closing down 1.56% and the Nasdaq index falling even more by 2.16%.

This situation has only occurred twice before: April 7, 2020 (after the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic) and April 8, 2025 (after the impact of Trump tariffs).

NVIDIA's favorable performance was short-lived, similarly experiencing a sharp drop after a strong opening: after rising more than 5% during the session, it closed down 3%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turned from a significant gain in the morning to a nearly 4.8% drop at closing.

Analysis suggests that when favourable information cannot drive the market up, it itself becomes a strong bearish signal, triggering large-scale profit-taking and technical sell-offs in the US stock market.

The US stock market staged the largest intraday reversal amidst the April tariff storm.

Before the market opens, the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report shows an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations. However, at the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, reaching the highest level in four years. The “mixed” data indicates that the job market still has resilience, while the rise in the unemployment rate has increased expectations for future interest rate cuts.

In the early session, buoyed by the “golden-haired girl” like US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data and Nvidia's strong earnings report, the three major stock indices opened significantly higher.

During the midday session, Bitcoin broke below the $90,000 mark in the U.S. stock market, dropping more than $5,000 intraday, triggering a sell-off of high-risk assets.

In addition, Federal Reserve Governor Cook warned that the risks in the private credit market could spread throughout the financial system.

Well-known financial journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the “New Federal Reserve News Agency,” wrote that the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report is unlikely to help the Federal Reserve reach a consensus on whether to pause interest rate cuts next month.

Optimism takes a sudden turn, U.S. stocks experience a “gap up and then down” reversal. All three major U.S. stock indices have turned negative and continue to widen their losses.

Finally, the S&P 500 index closed down 103.40 points, a decrease of 1.56%, at 6538.76 points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 386.51 points, a decrease of 0.84%, at 45752.26 points.

The Nasdaq closed down 486.181 points, a decrease of 2.16%, at 22078.048 points.

The market questions Nvidia: “The 'shovel sellers' won't say there is no gold in the mountains.”

Despite Nvidia's third-quarter revenue soaring 62% year-over-year to $57.01 billion and providing a strong fourth-quarter guidance, investors' concerns about the AI valuation bubble have not completely dissipated.

On Thursday, Nvidia's stock price reversed and fell during the session, after the company's earnings report, which exceeded expectations, had initially driven the stock price up by 5%.

After the earnings report was released, stocks related to the AI ecosystem, including AMD and Broadcom, were initially boosted but then fell back with the overall market.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated in the earnings call that there is a lot of discussion about the AI bubble, but from our perspective, the situation is completely different.

However, this defense is inevitable in the eyes of some market observers.

The analysis suggests that this is akin to a hardware store owner during a gold rush who would never tell the prospectors, “There is actually no gold in the mountains.” Even if there is indeed a bubble in the AI boom, as the biggest beneficiary, Jensen Huang would not admit to it.

Investors' concerns about the AI bubble are not focused on this quarter or the next few quarters, but rather on whether capital expenditure can continue to grow one or two years from now. These massive investments ultimately need to generate returns.

History provides valuable reference cases. During the internet bubble, Cisco, as a global network equipment provider, was one of the most important “shovel-selling” companies. Although Cisco's revenue growth did not reach the current level of Nvidia, it was still quite strong, even experiencing a brief acceleration, until a steep decline after the internet bubble burst.

NVIDIA has currently announced a quarterly dividend of 1 cent. Based on the pre-market share price of $195.60, shareholders would need nearly 4900 years to recover their costs solely through dividends.

Analysis suggests that if AI investment is indeed a bubble that is difficult to sustain, one cannot expect Jensen Huang to admit it outright, nor can it be discerned from NVIDIA's current performance or short-term outlook. The path of slowing growth will determine the trend of AI-themed stocks, but the causal relationship may be exactly the opposite—stock price fluctuations may, in turn, influence investment decisions.