HBAR remains under heavy pressure, falling roughly 17% over the past week and nearly 24% month over month. The move continues a well-defined downtrend, pushing the token into a critical technical zone that now determines whether the decline pauses or accelerates.
Head-and-Shoulders Target Officially Met
On November 13, HBAR confirmed a head-and-shoulders breakdown on the daily chart, projecting a downside move of about 28% from the neckline. That target was reached on December 15, when price touched the $0.113 area. Since then, HBAR has stalled and moved sideways, turning the former target into short-term support.
Support Test Marks a Decision Point
This is typically the point where sellers pause to reassess. A decisive break below $0.113 would signal trend continuation, while holding the level could allow for a short-lived relief bounce. The price structure has played out as expected, leaving indicators and flows to dictate the next move.
Capital Flows Signal Weak Demand
On-chain data does not yet support a sustained rebound. The Chaikin Money Flow has fallen to around -0.32, its lowest level in roughly a year. This deeply negative reading indicates capital is leaving HBAR, even as price consolidates at support, suggesting the pause is not driven by strong accumulation.
Exchange Flows Show Sellers Regaining Control
Spot flow data briefly hinted at support on December 14, when HBAR saw about $3.16 million in net exchange outflows, typically associated with short-term buying or reduced sell pressure. That signal quickly faded. Over the past several days, flows have flipped back to net inflows, even if modest, showing that selling interest has returned and buyers have stepped aside.
Key Levels That Define the Next Move
With the breakdown target achieved, the chart opens up further downside risk. A loss of $0.113 would likely lead to a test of $0.107. A clean break there exposes $0.095, implying roughly another 16% downside from current levels. On the upside, any bounce remains corrective unless HBAR can reclaim $0.155 on a daily close, a level that aligns with prior support and the underside of the former range.
Breakdown Played Out, But Risk Remains
HBAR has fulfilled what the bearish pattern projected. The remaining question is whether weak demand and absent large buyers turn this consolidation into the next leg lower. For now, market signals continue to favor further downside rather than a sustained recovery.
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