Trump warns Iran leading to oil price plunge, U.S. Treasury yields decline simultaneously

March 10 News: According to CNBC, U.S. President Trump warned Iran on Tuesday that any attempt to block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would be met with a “twentyfold” response. This statement caused international oil prices to plummet, and U.S. Treasury yields also declined. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 2 basis points to 4.117%, the 30-year yield dropped less than 1 basis point to 4.734%, and the 2-year yield decreased nearly 3 basis points to 3.563%.

Previously, Trump hinted that the U.S.-Iran conflict might be nearing an end. The recent statement further heightened market sensitivity to Middle East tensions. After the news was released, oil prices initially dropped about 10%, then the decline narrowed. Market focus also includes a virtual meeting planned for Tuesday evening among G7 energy ministers to discuss whether to activate emergency oil reserves to address supply disruption risks. Earlier, G7 finance ministers discussed releasing strategic petroleum reserves but had not reached a final decision.

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said he was invited by France to attend the finance ministers’ meeting and discussed the global economic outlook and the potential impact of Middle East conflicts on energy markets. Birol noted that the IEA and its member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil reserves, with an additional approximately 600 million barrels held by industry obligations, which can be released if necessary. Additionally, Birol maintains close contact with energy ministers from countries including Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, Azerbaijan, and Singapore to coordinate responses to potential supply disruptions.

Investors are also watching upcoming macroeconomic data, including Wednesday’s February U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), Friday’s January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and JOLTS job openings data. These figures could further influence market interest rate expectations and energy price trends. In the short term, Middle East geopolitical tensions and the release of U.S. macroeconomic indicators will be key triggers for market volatility.