Prediction Market

WBC World Baseball Classic Group C's final game will be held tonight. South Korea needs to beat Australia to give the Chinese Taipei team a chance to advance, and must achieve an 8:3 point difference. Polymarket shows South Korea's win probability at 73%, but Chinese Taipei's advancement still depends on South Korea's performance. Despite the strong showing in the prediction market, there is still uncertainty in the situation.

In the Polymarket prediction market, one account purchased crude oil futures for $12,000, betting it will reach $120 before the end of March, with a current probability of 64%. The Strait of Hormuz faces a risk of blockade due to the Iran situation, and international crude oil prices have risen to $107. Merchant ships are changing destinations or flying Chinese flags to avoid risks.

On March 9th, the prediction market trading terminal project Kairos announced integration with the Opinion order book and launched an invite-only beta test. The project has received investment from a16z crypto and aims to enhance the prediction market trading experience and promote the rapid development of the Opinion ecosystem.

The Taiwan team defeated South Korea 5-4 in the WBC qualifiers, keeping their hopes of advancing alive. If South Korea beats Australia tonight and scores 8 or more points, Taiwan can advance. Korean media pointed out that Taiwan's strength has improved, putting pressure on South Korea. The South Korean team is facing confusion in pitcher deployment, and the risk of elimination is increasing.

On March 9th, Gate News reported that PolyBeats detected a new account betting $17,000 on a CEX FDV exceeding $500 million on Polymarket. The CEX was founded by former FTX and Alameda executives, with the latest funding negotiations valuing it at $1 billion, and a 48% probability of token issuance.

As oil prices surpass $100 and the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, market concerns about a U.S. recession in 2026 are intensifying, with the estimated recession probability reaching 40%. Signs of weakness are emerging in the labor market, with non-farm employment declining and the unemployment rate rising, putting economic pressure on the economy. Under the dual influence of energy and private credit markets, the uncertainty of the future economic outlook is increasing, and policy challenges are growing.

According to Polymarket data, two high-probability addresses are betting that the U.S. military will enter Iran in March, with a wager of $73,800 and a current probability of 43%. The United States is discussing deploying special forces into Iran, while Iran's foreign minister stated that they are prepared for a possible U.S. ground invasion and are strengthening their defenses.

Due to rising global energy prices and geopolitical tensions, concerns about the US economic outlook have intensified. Several forecasting platforms indicate that the probability of a recession in the United States by 2026 has increased to 36%-40%. Oil prices have surpassed $100, and coupled with a weak labor market and increasing financial pressures, these are the main factors driving the heightened recession expectations.

The rapid development of the prediction market industry has attracted attention to its business models and regulatory issues. Polymarket CEO mentioned that as trading volume expands, war-related prediction markets have sparked controversy but also provide informational references. Data shows that geopolitical events have driven a significant increase in trading volume. Although the legality of war contracts remains gray area, prediction markets continue to attract substantial capital. Two companies aim for a valuation of $20 billion in their funding goals and are competing for the young user demographic.

Gate News Report, March 9 — According to Cointelegraph, prediction market platform Kalshi has partnered with Brazil's largest broker XP Inc. to initiate its first international expansion. The two parties will jointly offer binary contract products related to the Brazilian economy.

On March 9th, a prediction market platform showed that investors are betting that the US and Iran will not cease fire in April. Trump stated that he will jointly decide on military action with the Israeli Prime Minister, while Iran's Foreign Minister emphasized that there is no intention to cease fire at the moment and expressed distrust towards the US side.

According to a recent report, the two heavyweight prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, are said to be chatting with prospective backers about fresh fundraising rounds. Current figures place Kalshi’s valuation near $11 billion and Polymarket’s around $9 billion, and if capital does come

On March 9th, a new account on Polymarket invested $25,000 betting that "Extended FDV will exceed $300 million on the day after launch," with a current probability of 46%. The project is a Perp DEX developed by a former Revolut executive team and has launched on Starknet, with over $6.5 million in funding.

The prediction market platform Kalshi is facing a class-action lawsuit over contracts related to Hamini's resignation. The plaintiffs allege that the platform refused to pay $54 million in damages using a "death exemption" clause. Mansour stated that the platform has not changed its terms and has compensated users for their losses, but the plaintiffs are dissatisfied with the reimbursement amount. This case has raised concerns about prediction market rules and fulfillment risks.

According to the report from the prediction market data platform Parity, as of May 2024, Kalshi and Polymarket added over 273,908 new users last month. Polymarket's monthly retention rate is 50.2%, and the 3-month retention rate is 30%.

Gate News Report, March 9 — Data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows that the probability of an economic recession in the United States by the end of 2026 has increased to 41%.