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The U.S. releases signals of easing, could the market welcome a phase reversal?
Brothers, this recent wave of plummeting prices can basically be written into the history books of the crypto world.
It's not hard to understand - with the three mountains of news, policies, and leverage pressing down together, everyone has to lie low.
The sources of the decline are four points:
1️⃣ Tariff Issues: The United States directly threw out a 100% tariff move, causing the global market to explode instantly. Trade risks are rising, macro expectations are deteriorating, and high-risk assets are naturally being smashed.
2️⃣ High Leverage Liquidation: A chain reaction of liquidations is the trigger. High leverage long positions are wiped out one after another, causing panic to spread and selling pressure to snowball.
3️⃣ The Federal Reserve's stance is unclear: it has not discussed interest rate cuts for a long time, expectations for funding are tightening, and liquidity is being withdrawn.
4️⃣ Government shutdown risk: Macroeconomic confidence worsens, and market risk aversion surges.
These four points combined led to a cliff-like drop in the market; it’s not an exaggeration to say - this wave is quite severe.
So why can it rise back again?
1️⃣ Signs of easing have emerged: Vice President Vance personally cools the situation, revealing that Trump "values friendship" and leans towards rational negotiation. The old routine "TACO" is back — first a threat, then reconciliation, and finally a rebound.
2️⃣ Expectations for interest rate cuts heat up: CME data shows that the market believes there is a 97.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October. Low interest rates are always the spring for risk assets.
3️⃣ Technical fix: After an epic crash, a rebound is naturally coming, and the liquidation of positions actually eases the downward pressure.
4️⃣ Capital Bottoming: Institutions are seizing the opportunity to accumulate during panic, Bitmine directly purchased 128,000 ETH. This is not speculation, it is a signal.
Conclusion:
This wave of increase is more like a resonance rebound of market self-repair combined with policy cooling.
Whether the trend reverses depends on the subsequent tariff negotiations and the statements from the Federal Reserve.
Suggestion——
Keep your position light and your pace steady; don't chase, don't gamble.
Pay attention to tariff policies, the panic index, and capital flows. When the market truly turns bullish, it won't be invisible to people.