Our honest take on @megaeth_labs sale:

- L2 tokens have been a flop narrative. Nearly every Ethereum L2 token has been in down-only mode. Even $LINEA from ConsenSys followed the same pattern, trading at only a ~$2B FDV. MegaETH, however, introduces unique features that deserve a closer look.

- Sequencer Rotation + Proximity Market are the two most important pieces of MegaETH’s core infrastructure. $MEGA demand directly scales with network activity — more usage, more $MEGA required.

- Mainet is set for December 2025, however, it claims to be the fastest, real-time blockchain with: 100,000+ TPS, 10+ GGas/s, < 10 ms blocktime

- Raised $20M from Dragonfly, Vitalik Buterin, Joseph Lubin, Cobie, Big Brain Holdings, and others. A notable signal of support.

- Already listed on Hyperliquid perps, currently implying a ~$5B FDV — about 5x higher than the auction cap.

- Buyback repurchased 4.75% equity + token warrants from pre-seed investors — a rare and interesting decision.

- Echo recently bought by Base —> MegaETH, is the first project raised from a Base official launchpad

- The initial unlock remains unclear, but heavy sell pressure from public sales is likely. Longer term, tokenomics appear structured to support sustainable growth.

- MegaETH, while ambitious, remains weaker compared to major players like zkSync, Linea, Starknet, Arbitrum, and Optimism. Those L2s are currently valued between $600M and $3.2B FDV with real traction. Even at peak hype, MegaETH may reasonably settle mid-range around ~$2B FDV.

- The $5–7B valuation on Hyperliquid is still unexplained — potentially a team-driven marketing strategy to drive high-FDV demand during IDO.

- Almost everyone is likely to profit from this IDO. Sonar previously launched Plasma, one of the most successful IDOs in recent cycles (38x ATH ROI + airdrop). That track record makes MegaETH’s IDO hard to ignore.

- But with current consensus around the sale, expect heavy oversubscription, where most investors will end up with only a small allocation, or none at all.

Scenarios:
Bear Case: 600M FDV; ROI at 1B = 0.6x (people realize it's just another L2 with zero traction)
Base Case: 2B FDV; ROI at 1B = 2.0x (like explained above)
Bull Case: 5B FDV; ROI at 1B = 5.0x (it can maintain the current hype FDV on Hyperliquid)

Worth a look if you believe in a faster Ethereum.

We are in.