#期权市场动态 Looking back at the past decades of Bitcoin cycles, this round of decline feels familiar. The market sentiment always swings from euphoria to panic, repeating itself time and again. Current data shows that short-term holders are selling off on a large scale, with realized losses surging to the highest level since the FTX collapse. This kind of capitulation often signals an approaching bottom.

Changes in the options market are also worth noting. The 25-delta skew is tilting towards puts, especially with a significant rise in volatility for long-term options, reflecting growing concerns about the future. Historically, this pattern frequently appears near cyclical bottoms.

However, even if we hit bottom, the road to recovery won’t be smooth. Whether the psychological barrier around $85,000 can hold is crucial. If we break through the $86,822 resistance level, it might spark a new wave of upward momentum. But if we fall below $82,503, we may have to endure another round of cleansing.

Having experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, I know that hope is always born out of extreme pessimism in the market. Now might be a good time to accumulate, but it’s important to act cautiously and manage risk well. After all, history does repeat itself, but never in exactly the same way.