Today, the overseas crypto media Cointelegraph raised a market-moving judgment: if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as scheduled on December 19, BTC Bitcoin may face a new round of correction, potentially falling below $70,000.

This conclusion is not an emotional prediction but a comprehensive analysis based on macro policies, historical data, and technical patterns.

1. Why is the Bank of Japan important?
Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates for a long time, forming a large-scale "Yen arbitrage trading": borrowing low-interest yen and investing in high-risk assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies. If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates:
- The yen strengthens, increasing financing costs, forcing arbitrage funds to close positions
The result is a tightening of global liquidity, with risk assets generally under pressure, and Bitcoin being particularly sensitive to liquidity changes.

2. Historical experience is not optimistic
Analyst AndrewBTC's statistics show that since 2024, every rate hike by the Bank of Japan has led to a significant correction in Bitcoin:
- March 2024: down about 23%
- July 2024: down about 26%
- January 2025: down about 31%
In other words, a rate hike by the Bank of Japan often acts as a "trigger" for Bitcoin's phased decline.

3. Technical signals indicate risk
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has recently formed a typical "bear flag" pattern: a rapid decline followed by a narrow rebound and consolidation. In technical analysis, this usually indicates a consolidation within a downtrend rather than a reversal.
Once the price breaks down below the consolidation zone, the measured target points precisely around $70,000.

4. Does this mean the end of the bull market?
It is important to emphasize that a short-term correction does not mean a long-term bearish outlook.
This is more likely a phase adjustment under the background of liquidity contraction, rather than a negation of Bitcoin's fundamental logic.