#大户持仓变化 The market is playing the same old story again: retail investors panic and sell off, while institutions are buying up large chunks. Periodic cycles of panic and indifference alternate—Is this a reflection of human nature’s volatility, or just how the game is supposed to be?

$BTC Once dropping below $86,000, $ETH also couldn’t hold the $3,000 level. Red fills the screen, and many start to cut their positions. However, upon closer inspection, a completely different phenomenon is occurring.

The major holders with real chips are quietly eating away at the price. Brazil’s largest asset manager Itaú publicly states plans to allocate to Bitcoin; a top institution heavily buys tens of thousands of BTC; a well-known wallet service provider announces full integration into the Bitcoin ecosystem. Meanwhile, JPMorgan launches a money market fund on Ethereum, and BlackRock continues to increase holdings via ETF—these are not impulsive actions.

How did this yin-yang situation come about?

One overlooked factor is on the macro side: the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates this week, with the market pricing in this probability approaching 98%. This move could directly dismantle the longstanding yen arbitrage trades, forcing some international capital to exit high-risk assets and quickly pay back cheaply borrowed yen. The chain reaction results in this round of decline.

But short-term drops do not change the long-term logic. The market always operates this way: macro liquidity and sentiment create huge volatility in the short term, while truly value-focused capital opportunistically seeks opportunities amid the chaos.

At the loudest moments, the direction is often the clearest. Are you following the panic to cut your positions, or stopping to think, asking yourself what comes next when others are afraid?