ETH's performance today largely met expectations, with limited rebound during the day, giving long traders some hope. But the real test comes tonight—U.S. non-farm payroll data is about to be released, which could trigger another "dive" in the market.

**On-chain whales are dumping heavily**

A major news broke this afternoon: a wallet suspected to be linked to Lido's founder suddenly sold 14,585 ETH at an average price of $2,928, cashing out a total of $42.71 million. This isn't normal position adjustment; it's clearly a run. The departure of large holders often signals market pressure.

**Uncertainty on non-farm night**

Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. November non-farm employment data and unemployment rate will be announced. The market expects employment to increase by 40,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.40%. How this data turns out will determine the next liquidity direction—if it exceeds expectations, the Fed's hawkish stance will strengthen, putting liquidity tightening pressure on the crypto market; if it falls short, there may be a rebound opportunity. Saying tonight is a sleepless night is no exaggeration.

**Liquidation scale is shocking**

If ETH drops below $2,800, the liquidation of long positions on major exchanges could reach $849 million. Conversely, if it breaks through $3,000, short liquidations could amount to $659 million. What do these numbers indicate? The market is like a room full of gunpowder, just waiting for a spark. At the same time, it also reflects that many traders are still bottom-fishing at low levels.

**Technical warning signals**

On the 1-hour K-line, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly, with the middle band at $2,943, and the upper and lower bands at $2,966 and a lower level. Narrowing oscillation often means a trend reversal is imminent—once it breaks outside the bands, the market could move rapidly in one direction.

Tonight's market setup requires extra caution.