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The latest released US economic data directly relates to BTC's recent trend. To start with the conclusion—this set of data is a genuine positive for the crypto market.
The November unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%, far exceeding the market expectation of 4.4%. Not only did it fail to meet the target, but it also broke through the 4.5% threshold, with a significant deviation from expectations. The unemployment rate is the most straightforward indicator of the labor market. There's a commonly overlooked logic: even if the number of new jobs added is decent, a rapid increase in the unemployment rate indicates underlying problems in the employment market. Conversely, if the unemployment rate remains low, even with fewer new jobs, it still suggests full employment in the market, which is not a bad thing. Therefore, this sharp rise in the unemployment rate is definitely a positive signal for BTC holdings.
Looking at the November non-farm payrolls data, the reported figure is 64,000 new jobs, slightly above the market expectation of 50,000. But don’t be fooled by this number. When compared to historical data from other months this year, this increase is actually quite weak—other months have seen over 100,000 new jobs.
More importantly, the simultaneous appearance of rising unemployment, insufficient new jobs, and a decline in average hourly earnings is no coincidence. The labor market is clearly weakening, and economic growth momentum is diminishing. In this macro environment, market demand for risk assets usually increases.