#数字资产市场洞察 The Japanese rate hike window is approaching, and market reactions have already been quite intense.

From last night's trend, we can see the signs—heavy selling pressure after the rebound high point, clearly indicating that the bulls are struggling, and panic sentiment is spreading. Large funds are positioning in advance, reducing risks through liquidation, and preparing for the upcoming changes.

History provides clues. Looking back at the three rate hikes in March 2024, July 2024, and January 2025, Bitcoin prices respectively declined by 23%, 26%, and 30%. If the rate hike occurs as scheduled on December 19, a short-term correction of 10%–20% is almost a high-probability event. The market has already priced in some expectations, but the real test has yet to come.

From the perspective of arbitrage funds, more attention is warranted. For a long time, Japan's interest rates have been low or even negative, attracting global capital to profit through arbitrage chains—borrowing yen → converting to USD → investing in high-yield assets. Once the rate hike is implemented, the cost of borrowing yen will rise, squeezing arbitrage space, and investors will inevitably accelerate selling Bitcoin and other risk assets to repay yen debts. This means that in the short term, the crypto market faces significant capital outflow pressure.

However, the sharp correction in major coins last night may have already priced in some negative news. Moving forward, there is still a possibility of small rebounds in mainstream coins. Altcoins are more complex—more volatile, with more operational space, requiring tailored strategies based on market conditions.
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