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Last night's national address by Trump once again mixed policy promises with market expectations.
The core message is roughly as follows: In 11 months in office, he has invested 18 trillion dollars (though the actual figure might be somewhat less), and given each of the 1.45 million soldiers a Christmas gift of $1,776 — an interesting choice of number that directly points to American independence. Border controls have been tightened, the military has been reorganized, and the rhetoric carries a sense of "rebuilding America."
Regarding inflation and the economy? Trump's logic is very clear — fixing the mess left by his predecessor. If the Federal Reserve doesn't cooperate? Replace them or apply pressure. If interest rates don't fall? Cut them. If housing prices soar? Just launch a "New Year Housing Reform Surgery."
Polls show only 36% of people approve of his economic policies, but Trump doesn't care. He's betting on market reactions — starting a rate cut cycle, releasing dollar liquidity, and crypto assets soaring as a result. From Wall Street to the crypto world, this logic has been validated more than once. Fed Chair Powell is probably quietly thinking about how to balance things right now.
In simple terms: Policy expectations are pushing up the valuation of risk assets. The next phase depends on the implementation of rate cuts and liquidity release.