#数字资产市场洞察 The Christmas market hasn't arrived yet, but warning signals are already ringing

In the past few days, analyzing on-chain data and derivatives reports reveals a phenomenon worth noting: long-term Bitcoin holders (those holding for over 2 years) are accelerating their exit. These individuals were the backbone of the previous bull market, and changes in their behavior often signify something.

What is really happening in the market now? Three questions stand out:

**Apathy in Perpetual Contracts**
The performance of open interest and funding rates says it all — retail traders' enthusiasm for reopening positions has hit rock bottom. The options market is even more straightforward, with pricing logic pointing entirely to "defense." No one is thinking about bottom fishing; everyone is wondering how low it will go.

**Our Own Starting to Let Go**
The most heartbreaking part is that those who have held Bitcoin for several years are now selling at an unprecedented speed. Remember, this group’s position stability was once the market’s stabilizer, but now the needle is wobbling.

**Buyers Are Turning Away**
Previously visible ETF inflows are now turning into net outflows. Without buyers, selling pressure will intensify.

**My Take Is This**
The market is currently engaged in a liquidity depletion battle. Before new strong catalysts appear (such as unexpectedly positive macro news), it’s unlikely to see a meaningful rebound. At this stage, surviving and protecting your principal is more practical than quick doubling.

Interestingly, besides trading cryptocurrencies, blockchain’s constructive applications are also making an impact — for example, projects providing free education to children worldwide are ongoing, and community members are demonstrating the ecosystem’s warmth through real actions.

**What’s your view?** Where do you think the bottom of this correction will be?