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History is in front of us: when Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin tends to fall. The first three times all followed this pattern—declines exceeding 20%. The reason is quite straightforward: the yen carry trade collapses, and the funds that borrowed cheap yen to leverage and trade cryptocurrencies disperse in chaos.
But this time is different. Japan's central bank's aggressive 0.75% rate hike didn't cause Bitcoin to crash. Analysts point out three key factors: first, the market had already digested the bearish expectations; second, the Bank of Japan still talks about "accommodation"; third and most importantly—the US Bitcoin ETF, a large liquidity pool, absorbed all the selling pressure.
However, the most worth noting part is here. The "no decline" this time seems positive, but in reality, the underlying market logic is undergoing a huge shift. The entire crypto market is transitioning from an era driven by cheap yen, retail investors, and leveraged trading—an era of speculation—to a "allocation era" dominated by global macro strategies and institutional funds.
As the old arbitrage wave gradually recedes, a new question emerges: in a phase of shifting dynamics and high macro uncertainty, is relying solely on Bitcoin as a "safe harbor" enough? Or is there a need for a kind of "stable infrastructure" that can withstand macro volatility and support high-frequency daily value flows?
The role of stablecoins is being redefined. The era of institutionalization has arrived, and market volatility remains intense. Stability and efficient circulation are equally critical at this moment. A healthy crypto ecosystem requires not only Bitcoin as a value anchor but also stablecoins to support daily transactions and value exchange stability. This is not just an embellishment but a necessity for the ecosystem's integrity.