Bitcoin is currently stuck at the hurdle of 85000 USD, which is a line that long positions must defend. Otherwise, if it continues to fall, it will really be troublesome. After dropping from 88200 USD some time ago, the market has lost its vitality, with fluctuations becoming smaller and smaller, and there are pessimistic voices everywhere in the market.

Many analysts have recently stated that this bear market may extend into next year. In this atmosphere, we need to clarify one question – who is really selling? This is more important than just looking at price trends.

From on-chain data, the adjustment of Bitcoin from $88,200 back to $85,000 will reveal the true situation. Based on holding periods, we can categorize holders into two groups: short-term holders and long-term holders. The inflow of funds into exchanges can indicate significant issues.

Interestingly, long-term holders (those who have held for a long time and have strong beliefs) currently show no signs of large-scale selling. Historical experience tells us that true bear market accelerations often occur when this group starts to cut their positions. The fact that this situation has not occurred suggests that the current decline is primarily due to short-term speculators stopping losses and avoiding risks, rather than long-term investors changing their beliefs.

In simple terms: short-term profit-taking, rather than a structural mass exit. Bitcoin has been testing the $85000 level repeatedly; what the market needs to do is not just to see if the support is strong enough, but to understand the true intentions of the other party.