Having spent so many years in this market, the first lesson I learned is: every fluctuation on the chart tells a story, the key is whether we can understand it.

Recently, XRP's performance has indeed made many people restless, and I’ve received a bunch of inquiries. Instead of comforting each other in the comment section, it’s better to see the situation clearly. Today, I want to share my observations.

**What the current chart looks like**

The most straightforward situation is this: XRP has broken below the psychological level of $2.50 and is now hovering around $2.30. In the short term, the 100-hour simple moving average is acting as resistance, indicating that the recent bears are in control.

Looking at the hourly chart, the recent highs can be connected to form a clear downtrend line, with around $2.55 serving as the "ceiling" during rebounds. Every time the price approaches this level, it gets pushed down, showing clear selling pressure.

Additionally, technical indicators—like the hourly MACD—are still oscillating in the bearish zone. Although the downward momentum has weakened, no clear reversal signals have appeared yet. The RSI is below 50, meaning the market is still in the hands of the bears. These signals together only indicate one thing: the current rebound seems quite weak.

For me, the $2.50 figure is not just a price level. It’s the dividing line in the recent battle between bulls and bears. Since it can no longer hold, it naturally shifts from support to resistance.

**What’s beneath the price**

But we must understand that price fluctuations are just the tip of the iceberg. The real story is hidden behind.

This decline didn’t happen out of nowhere. Market sentiment, macro environment, capital flows—all these factors are at play. Some investors might see a rebound and think a reversal is coming, only to get caught; others are forced to cut losses because the overall market is weakening. These are the driving forces behind the price decline.

At the same time, we also need to see clearly: where is the bottom? Is this current decline a healthy correction, or a sign of larger risks? These questions can’t be answered just by looking at short-term candlesticks.