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The Fed's latest meeting notes paint a picture of a cooling U.S. economy. Growth is holding steady, but nothing to get excited about—it's running at a moderate pace. The labor market is showing real signs of softening too. Wage growth? It's tracking where it was a year ago, which tells you the pressure is easing off.
Here's where it gets interesting for markets: a potential government shutdown looms, and that's expected to drag on near-term GDP figures. The Fed's staff economists aren't painting a rosy picture for the quarters ahead—they're penciling in modest growth at best. This kind of economic backdrop typically shapes how different asset classes perform, especially when central bank policy is stuck in a holding pattern.