Federal Reserve officials recently reached a consensus on a rate cut in December and also signaled the possibility of further easing policies in the future. However, interestingly, this information did not excite traders to significantly increase their expectations for the number of rate cuts.

The market's attitude remains calm: most traders are still betting on two rate cuts in 2026. This contrasts with their general expectation of three cuts in early December. In other words, the dovish signals from policymakers have not completely dispelled traders' cautious stance.

What is the reason behind this? Policymakers have been emphasizing the risks faced by the labor market, and traders are evidently remaining highly vigilant in this regard. They seem to be waiting for subsequent employment and economic data to truly verify whether these risks are real, rather than jumping to conclusions based solely on policy tone. This wait-and-see attitude to some extent reflects the market's higher regard for data over reliance on policy hints.