#数字资产市场动态 The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes are out, and the policymakers are quite active—some are pondering the possibility of inflation making a comeback, while others are concerned about signs of a slowdown in the employment market. This tug-of-war will largely determine where interest rates head next year, based on the outcome of this internal debate.

**Rate Cuts Implemented, but Opinions Diverge**

Three weeks ago, the Fed took decisive action, cutting interest rates for the third time this year, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. However, the process wasn't entirely smooth—out of 12 policymakers, 3 voted against the move. Chairman Powell stepped in to smooth things over, stating that the current rate level can support employment while continuing to suppress inflation.

Looking at the minutes, you'll find that the reality is more complex. Most officials are still wary of the employment market softening further, and no one dares to say that the inflation threat has completely disappeared. They have collectively stated that as long as upcoming data remains reliable—especially if inflation continues to return to 2%—another rate cut could be on the table.

**2026: The Fed Wants to Cut Once, the Market Wants More**

The Fed's dot plot indicates one rate cut next year, with inflation forecast at 2.4% by year's end. But traders are more optimistic. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool data: the probability of at least a 25 basis point cut before March 2026 has already exceeded 50%; there's also about a 6.5% chance of a bold 50 basis point cut in one go.

**Personnel Changes Are a Variable, January Is a Turning Point**

The upcoming Fed meeting on January 27-28 is on the horizon, but another major event cannot be ignored—President Trump has signaled that he will announce his pick for the new Fed Chair next month.

Currently, the two most discussed candidates are: Kevin Woor, 55 years old, a former Fed governor who advocates for central bank independence, balance sheet reduction, and more aggressive rate cuts; and Kevin Hasset, 63 years old, a former White House economic advisor who naturally leans toward easing policies, favoring tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and low interest rates. He has even hinted that he would be more aggressive in cutting rates if he takes office.

Their approaches are entirely different. Who succeeds Powell could directly influence the Fed's actions in 2025 and the market's direction. The sensitivity of crypto assets to interest rate policies makes this variable particularly noteworthy.