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Given the current economic environment, there is only one best way out for ordinary people.
Let me share a truth that many are reluctant to admit but is happening:
In the next ten years, the core task of society will be—wealth accumulation.
What we are experiencing is not prosperity, nor recession, but a less discussed phase:
Economic consolidation.
In this phase:
Large-scale construction will gradually cease
Cities will begin to age, roads will start to deteriorate
The myth of entrepreneurship will fade, social mobility will slow down
Inheritance and consumption will become the most important economic activities
Until one day, the old system clears out completely, and a new cycle is forced to start.
And even more harshly—
Children born after 2020, and we, are not in the same economic cycle at all.
Just like the urbanization, demographic dividend, and asset expansion dividends we enjoyed,
by the time they truly enter society, all will have “aged.”
In a large cycle spanning about 60 years,
the hardest hit are always those in the middle.
The old model has failed, new opportunities have not yet appeared.
What you’ve learned is exactly all outdated.
So what should ordinary people do?
I’ve condensed the answer into three points.
First: Let go of the impulse to “pay for society”
The greater the ability, the greater the responsibility.
But those with limited ability are most at risk of taking on responsibilities beyond their capacity.
This is not about supporting parents or raising children,
but—prolonging the life of the old cycle.
When real estate no longer rises,
buying a house is no longer investment, but paying for urban development.
When education continues to depreciate,
blindly taking exams is not a path upward, but paying for the education system.
If you cannot enjoy the dividends of productivity growth,
nor benefit from urbanization expansion,
then all “things that look like investments” are essentially adding to your burden.
In one sentence:
Reduce all investments that could turn into “payment behaviors.”
Keep resources for yourself and your family.
In an era that may long cycle through deflation + mild inflation,
cash will not depreciate wildly like in the past.
This, instead, is the best consolidation window for ordinary people.
Four words: Invest in yourself.
Second: Manage the present, not fantasize about the future
Every new cycle begins with a clearing of the old.
The “golden rice bowl” in the old cycle
may be worthless in the new cycle.
When real estate was hottest,
civil engineering was the “star of the future”;
looking back now, all plans seem absurd.
The only thing truly controllable is the present.
You don’t know when the new cycle will arrive,
nor what form it will take,
but one thing is certain:
It will definitely not appear with a “loss effect.”
The signal of a cycle starting is the profit effect.
So the strategy for ordinary people is simple:
Make money now, don’t bet on the future.
Money that enters your pocket
is truly meaningful.
Third: Turn “individual” into “the family’s core”
As society matures,
competition will shift from individuals to families.
A complete large cycle corresponds to three generations.
First generation: Seize the dividends, determine the starting point
Second generation: Transition under pressure, decide whether to break the cycle
Third generation: Welcome the new cycle, determine if they can turn things around
If you are the middle generation,
and missed the dividends,
then your most important mission now is:
Do not add burdens to the next generation.
No overspending, no reckless risks, no backing the system.
Let the third generation enter the new cycle lightly equipped.
This may be the last structural opportunity for an ordinary family.
Ending
A nine-word message to all ordinary people:
Build high walls, store abundant grain, take your time to become king.
During the economic consolidation period,
those who can stay calm
will be able to wait for the next era.
On a practical level—
Plan your cash flow well, and make long-term regular investments in BTC.
Not for quick riches,
but to leave yourself a ticket to the next cycle before the old system ages out.