Today is December 31st, BTC price is 88,578

I have a feeling that in the second half of this year, the main players are intentionally controlling or compressing the BTC price. From the sell-off, it mainly involves short-term speculative funds and debt chips similar to Mentougou, while core institutions are not reducing their holdings; instead, they are net buying (at least according to the data).
The performance in the second half of the year neither resembles tech stocks nor safe-haven gold. Despite three rate cuts and QE, the market did not rise but fell. So what is BTC? Does the US need BTC?
The US really needs BTC. In the context of declining trust in the dollar and US Treasuries, and continued money printing, BTC is a perfect water reservoir. Its current performance seems more like a test to deflate the bubble. Why do this? Maybe large institutions still lack reserves, maybe they are testing the consensus price of long-term holdings for larger water storage, or maybe the timing is not right yet. In any case, I can't think of a reason that would make BTC lose its value.

For BTC to become a national reserve, it needs to detach from tech stocks, have safe-haven value, and its price must be stable enough with a large market cap. Conversely, without these halos, BTC can only be a risk asset, optional or not. Based on current holdings of large institutions and their demand for the dollar, this is contradictory. It doesn't resemble the 70% crash in the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. The current clues all point to a bigger conspiracy. See you in 2026.