Spring Wheat Futures Rally While Market Players Build Short Positions

The grain complex showed divergent momentum during Tuesday’s session, with different wheat varieties responding to shifting market dynamics. Kansas City HRW wheat delivered the strongest performance, advancing 6 to 7 cents in nearby contracts, while Chicago SRW futures climbed 1 to 2 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat futures tracked a mixed trajectory on the day, reflecting broader uncertainty across the wheat sector.

Export activity provided some support, as the latest Export Sales report confirmed 432,609 MT in wheat shipments for the week ending December 11—positioning squarely in the middle of analyst forecasts and representing a 13.39% jump from the prior week. This uptick suggests underlying demand remains constructive, though EU exports are lagging year-over-year comparisons at 10.8 MMT against 11 MMT in the same period last year.

Speculative Positioning Shifts

Money managers continued repositioning in wheat futures, with Chicago adding 20,849 contracts to net short positioning as of December 16, bringing total spec net short to 66,918 contracts. Kansas City tracked similar momentum, as managed money added 8,702 contracts to their short positions, reaching 25,713 contracts by last Tuesday. These moves suggest traders are preparing for potential downside scenarios, even as export data shows modest resilience.

Contract Closes Across Major Exchanges

Closing prices reflected the mixed sentiment across spring wheat futures and other wheat contracts. March CBOT wheat settled at $5.17 (up 1½ cents), while May CBOT wheat closed at $5.27¼ (up 1 cent). Kansas City’s March contract finished at $5.28 (up 6¾ cents) and May at $5.40 (up 6 cents). Minneapolis March spring wheat futures closed at $5.80¼ (up ¼ cent), with May contracts at $5.90¼ (down ¼ cent), showing the granularity of price action across different wheat varieties and timeframes.