Holiday Trading Chaos: Markets Staying Cool While Labor Market Sends Mixed Signals

December 24, 2025 - Pre-Market Update

It’s Christmas Eve and the tape is thinner than a stocking, but the action in overnight futures already tells us something interesting: yesterday’s modest gains (+0.2% to +0.6%) are giving way to slightly softer opens this morning. Markets are hovering near flat ahead of the 1pm ET close today. But before the sleigh bells ring and traders log off, fresh jobless claims data just hit the tape — and the picture remains accommodating, even as cracks show elsewhere.

The Labor Market Paradox: Weak Monthly, Strong Weekly

Here’s the puzzle: Monthly payroll numbers have gone soft all year, yet Weekly Jobless Claims keep painting a rosier picture.

Initial Jobless Claims just printed at +214K last week — one of the tightest weekly readings we’ve seen in 2025 and comfortably below the +225K consensus call. The yearly low came during Thanksgiving Week at +192K, suggesting some seasonal noise might be softening year-end figures.

Continuing Claims, reported with a one-week lag, ticked back above the psychological 1.9 million barrier to 1.923 million (+38K from the downwardly revised 1.885 million prior week). That’s worth watching. We’d spent 27 straight weeks above 1.9 million from late May through late November, and that 2 million threshold? Economists consider it a flashing yellow light for labor market deterioration.

The disconnect is real: ADP and BLS payroll figures have decelerated significantly through 2025, and unemployment just hit its highest level since September 2021. So while the weekly claims data remains accommodating, the bigger employment trend is losing steam. The real question for 2026 is whether this labor softness continues.

Crypto Still Volatile After Wild Year

Bitcoin is clawing back above $87K this morning (currently $87.84K), though that October peak of $124K feels like ancient history after the $84K washout a month back. The year-to-date picture? Down -5.27% despite all the drama.

Ethereum trades around $2.97K — a stark contrast to the $4.83K levels this summer hit. Down -11.70% year-to-date, ETH has been even messier than BTC. Two cryptocurrencies, one verdict: volatile doesn’t begin to describe 2025.

Commodities Still Bid into Year-End

Spot gold jumped another +2% this morning and remains up +71% year-over-year, though it’s pulling back from last week’s $4,500+ peaks. Silver bounced back above $72/oz after testing lower earlier today. WTI crude has steadied around $58.50/barrel, recovered from $55/bbl lows from a few weeks prior.

Pharma M&A: Sanofi Snaps Up Dynavax

In corporate news that moved the tape: Sanofi announced yesterday it’s acquiring Dynavax Technologies for $15.50/share all-cash, valuing the Bay Area biotech at $2.2 billion total. Sanofi bolsters its adult vaccine portfolio with Dynavax’s Hepatitis B and shingles products, complementing its existing Dupixent franchise. DVAX shares rocketed +39% on the deal announcement, now sitting at the offer price.

The takeaway: Holiday trading may be thin, but the data keeps markets calibrated. Weak payrolls meet accommodating jobless claims. Crypto remains volatile. And M&A keeps flowing even during Xmas week.