Soybean Exports Hit Year High While Prices Feel Tuesday's Weight

The soybean market painted a mixed picture as Tuesday’s session saw front-month contracts retreating 1-2 cents per bushel. The national cash price dropped 3 cents, settling at $9.80 3/4, creating a bearish momentum that carried into the close.

Export Surge Provides Silver Lining

Despite price weakness, USDA export sales data revealed a compelling story. Soybean shipments during the week of December 11 reached 2.396 MMT—the highest weekly volume in over a year and a striking 68.3% surge compared to the same period last year. China remained the primary driver, absorbing 1.38 MMT in that single week alone, bringing total known Chinese purchases to 6.2 MMT. This substantial export demand stands in sharp contrast to Tuesday’s price pressure, suggesting underlying support beneath the surface turbulence.

Soy meal sales also exceeded expectations, hitting 616,453 MT well above the trade’s estimated range of 275,000-550,000 MT. Bean oil sales, however, lagged at 8,660 MT—the lower end of the 5,000-24,000 MT estimate.

Managed Money Continues Exit

Commitment of Traders data underscored why Tuesday’s weakness materialized. Managed money investors slashed their long positions by another 32,560 contracts during the week ending 12/16, bringing total net longs down to 147,778 contracts. This persistent deleveraging has been a recurring theme, adding downward pressure to futures prices.

Soymeal futures managed gains of $1.10 to $2.50 during the session, while Soy Oil futures slipped back 25-39 points, reflecting the broader commodity sector’s conflicted sentiment.

Contract Closeouts

The day’s settlement reflected the prevailing bearish undertone across multiple contract months. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.51 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents, while nearby cash beans finished at $9.80 3/4, down 3 cents. Mar 26 Soybeans ended at $10.63 3/4, off 1 1/4 cents, and May 26 Soybeans settled at $10.74 1/4, also down 1 1/4 cents.

The Tuesday session exemplified the current market dynamic: strong fundamental export demand battling algorithmic selling and fund liquidation, creating volatility that punishes both bulls and bears alike.