2026-01-01 13:22:52

Entering the first day of the new year, it's worth analyzing the走势 of Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the short term, both BTC and ETH are in a state of oscillation with a偏弱 trend, with rebounds always显得力不从心, and the highs gradually moving lower. But is it a彻底掉头? Not necessarily.

Let's discuss the基本面. The New Year's holiday caused a明显萎缩 in market liquidity, and in the past two days,资金 in spot ETFs have been flowing out, which is a暂时的阵痛. Coupled with the Japanese央行's rate hike actions, global流动性 is indeed tightening, and market情绪 has once fallen into the"极端恐惧" zone. It sounds quite吓人, but upon reflection— the预期 of the Federal Reserve降息 in 2026 has basically been confirmed, with an expectation of 2-3 cuts. Institutions have been长期囤积, especially with Ethereum交易所的库存处于低位, all of which are中期的支撑因素.

On the technical side, the短板 is also evident. Recently,弱势明显, rebounds乏力, and the trend's高点 are不断下移— this is a事实 we must承认.

Regarding操作, the建议 is as follows: Bitcoin can look for opportunities to做空 in the 89200 to 89700 range, with下方目标 aiming at around 88000. Ethereum should be布局在3000 to 3020附近, with目标位 at around 2950. In summary,短期韧性受到考验, but don't忽视中期的支撑条件— this波调整可能只是呼吸.

BTC1.19%

ETH0.91%

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Ser_APY_2000

· 9h ago

Another wave of "Don't panic, this is just a breath" sayings... Institutions are accumulating my信, but my wallet may not keep up.

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FUDwatcher

· 11h ago

It's the same "adjustment is just a breath" saying again, you say it every time haha. Can you use a new phrase next time?

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DuskSurfer

· 11h ago

Uh, it's that "breathing" explanation again. How many times did I hear it last year? I believe in the institutions holding, but this lousy liquidity is really uncomfortable now. I'll hide my 88,000 and gamble on a rebound. Short-term definitely looks bleak, it crashes after rising a bit, a bit weak. Waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026? Bro, can I wait that long?

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EntryPositionAnalyst

· 11h ago

Here we go again with the stories, institutions hoarding aggressively, Federal Reserve cutting interest rates... sounds pretty good, but in the short term, this tough position really can't hold up. The highs are getting lower, and it's just hard to watch.

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AlphaLeaker

· 11h ago

Another wave of "Just Breathing." Last time you said that, I was directly cut off... I believe in institutional accumulation, but why is this rebound always powerless?

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DecentralizedElder

· 11h ago

Well said, that's exactly the feeling. Things are indeed uncomfortable right now, but we can't just focus on this moment's restlessness. The real opportunity is still ahead.

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PanicSeller

· 11h ago

Are they starting to hype people to buy the dip again? I think it's just a short-term lack of direction. Don't get caught up in all those fundamentals; I'm tired of the institutional FOMO narrative. Wait, are institutions really accumulating ETH? Low exchange reserves are useless if the price doesn't go up—that's just empty talk. Try your luck with 88,000, but if you ask me, I think it will drop further. The Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates until 2026. Can we really wait that long, everyone? It's again 89,200-89,700, or 3,000-3,020. Do these numbers have any magic? If the rebound is weak, just say so. Don't talk about breathing; this is exhaustion. Honestly, this market movement is just institutions dumping and retail investors buying the dip, cycle after cycle. My stop-loss was set long ago.

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