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The warning signals in the investment community are becoming more urgent. The veteran analyst who accurately predicted the 2008 crash has recently issued a bold prediction: 2026 is very likely to become the "worst" year in financial crisis history. More notably, he has already taken concrete actions—clearing out US stock positions and heavily accumulating gold and silver.
This is not alarmism. The connection between the crypto market and traditional finance has become so tight that it’s almost inseparable. Once the storm hits, there will be very limited room to escape. But this is not doomsday talk; understanding the risks is the key to finding solutions.
**Two Chains Binding the Market**
The first is the dependence of stablecoins on US Treasuries. Currently, the global stablecoin market has surpassed $260 billion, with almost all of these tokens backed by US government bonds. The problem is, US debt has ballooned to over $37 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding the defense budget. This number continues to worsen. If the creditworthiness of US Treasuries cracks, the foundation of stablecoin credibility will shake, and liquidity in the crypto market could be rapidly drained, leaving no buyers when assets are sold.
The second is the synchronization between Bitcoin and US stocks. Data shows that their correlation has reached near-historical highs. What does this mean? When US stocks decline, Bitcoin struggles to move independently, and the idea of Bitcoin rising against the trend is as fanciful as a pipe dream.
**Practical Strategies to Respond**
Based on years of market observation, there are several proven approaches:
First, prioritize cash liquidity, but don’t convert everything into USD and hoard it. During a crisis, the most valuable asset isn’t tokens or stocks, but cash that can be mobilized at any time. However, a common misconception is that many people will sell all their crypto assets upon hearing this. In reality, a smarter approach is to maintain a certain proportion of stablecoins and USD reserves to handle sudden opportunities and liquidity needs.
Second, review how much of your assets are influenced by US debt. Stablecoins, US stocks, and funds related to US debt are part of this. If these assets constitute too high a proportion, adjusting the ratio can effectively reduce systemic risk.
Third, focus on asset classes with lower correlation to traditional finance. While achieving complete decoupling is difficult in the current environment, seeking investments with weaker correlations remains an effective way to diversify risk.
This potential financial storm isn’t something to simply avoid; it requires a clearer perspective on market structure. Making rational decisions based on a full understanding of risks is essential. Crypto market participants shouldn’t passively wait; proactive awareness and moderate adjustments are the right approach.