2026-01-01 13:40:29

#数字资产动态追踪 The Fork in the Crypto Ecosystem: Is It a Tool for the US Dollar or a Truly Independent System?

This question has long puzzled market participants. The crypto space now faces a choice, and the answer will determine the trajectory of the next few years.

**Two Perspectives, Very Different**

Some believe that stablecoins are essentially a form of digitalization of the US dollar. In simple terms, they help expand the influence of the dollar in the digital age and compete for global transaction dominance. Under this view, the risk in the crypto market lies in potentially triggering liquidity issues in traditional finance, ultimately evolving into economic rivalry among major powers. $BTC becomes the testing ground for this logic.

On the other hand, large institutions like Galaxy and Coinbase hold a different view. They believe the market is moving toward genuine maturity — no longer just speculation, but with real applications, institutional funding, and projects capable of generating cash flow. In this context, stablecoins serve as payment infrastructure, with scale continuing to grow. Risks are more related to regulation and macro policies. The value of ecosystem tokens like $ETH and $BNB is also being re-priced.

**2026: Three Key Test Moments**

In the coming year, several major events will hit simultaneously. In Q1, the Federal Reserve’s policy moves and the EU’s DAC8 rules will test market tolerance. In Q2, the Federal Reserve chair will change, possibly bringing new monetary policy shifts. In Q3, the EU’s MiCA regulation will fully come into effect, clarifying the crypto regulatory framework and potentially triggering a wave of adjustments. By Q4, the US midterm elections, Mt.Gox’s large repayments, and the pricing pressure of Bitcoin’s 2028 halving will all impact the market, leaving little room for relief in sentiment and capital.

**Final Words**

In the short term, regulation and macro policies will dominate market volatility. But the long-term question is: what role will stablecoins ultimately play? This is closely tied to the future of the US dollar credit system. Therefore, investors must consider both lines of reasoning simultaneously, as each key moment’s market reaction will serve as a test.

BTC1.19%

ETH0.91%

BNB-0.19%

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HalfIsEmpty

· 11h ago

What are you all talking about? Honestly, it's just about how long the dollar can last while gambling on it.

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GateUser-7b078580

· 11h ago

Data shows that the stablecoin market cap has surpassed 100 billion. Although, this thing is just a veneer of the US dollar and will eventually collapse. Wait a bit longer, the all-time low hasn't been reached yet. Based on hourly fluctuations, the real test will come with the shock in Q4 2026. Miners are consuming too much, and the gas fee structure is not reasonable. This mechanism can't be fixed in the short term, and they have to run when regulation tightens. Coinbase's stance is too optimistic. I remain cautious... The pattern observed is that institutions enter the market to bottom fish, but the cash flow still depends on the data. Unreasonable mechanisms determine the long-term outlook. The issue of stablecoins being tied to the dollar can't be blamed on anyone; it's just how the system is designed. Although ETH valuation has been re-priced, the fundamental logic hasn't changed. Be patient and wait for the next all-time low.

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NeverPresent

· 11h ago

To be honest, both factions have some validity, but I still think stablecoins can't operate independently... How could the US dollar give up such a good tool?

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PumpStrategist

· 11h ago

The pattern is set, now it depends on whether the Fed in the first quarter can break the market's psychological defense line. --- A typical retail investor mindset, still debating independence or not. Just look at the distribution of chips to know who is in control. --- Interesting levels, with all the events in Q4 hitting together, RSI has already gone into overbought territory. --- Stablecoins are essentially dollar-pegged assets, but the key to making money is the timing of risk release. --- If you're still talking about real-world applications, you probably haven't looked at the trading volume data. --- I laid out this logic on the chart three days ago. Only now am I realizing it—it's a bit late, everyone.

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