Recently, I've received quite a few inquiries, and the core questions are usually these: Since BTC has broken the historical patterns, should we expect a crash? Is it time to enter or exit now? Is there still hope? Honestly, the failure of patterns itself isn't scary; what’s truly troublesome is that 90% of people are making the same basic mistakes.

Let's first look at some data to calm the nerves. In 2025, BTC declined by 6.08% for the entire year. What does that mean? Compared to previous years of decline, this isn’t particularly severe: in 2014, it dropped 58.4%; in 2018, a crash of 73.7%; in 2022, a 64.8% halving. Compared to these, this year's decline is actually moderate. So why is everyone so panicked? Because the patterns from the past decade gave us enough confidence. Now that this confidence is shattered, people's hearts are also scattered.

I’ve observed three fatal mistakes that are common in the market and need to be clarified.

**Mistake 1: Equating the failure of patterns directly with asset collapse.** Many people's logic is—since the "rise three, fall one" cycle is broken, BTC is doomed and should be sold off. But this conclusion is fundamentally flawed. The failure of a pattern only indicates one thing: the market environment is changing. The intrinsic value, global consensus, and technological accumulation of BTC remain intact. Blindly cutting losses will only turn paper losses into real losses, which is not worth it.

**Mistake 2: Rushing to find new inevitable patterns and chasing certainty.** When a pattern breaks, many start asking around for new patterns. But markets never follow predictable routines; the more you try to grasp certainty, the easier it is to stumble. Some even over-interpret on-chain data, mistaking random fluctuations for signals. Doing so only accelerates losses.

**Mistake 3: Making decisions driven by emotions rather than logic.** When panicked, everything seems to be a sell. When greedy, everything looks like an opportunity to buy. This wavering mindset can barely survive in a market with clear patterns, but in an era of increasing variables, it becomes a deadly weapon.

The new market environment has already arrived. Instead of chasing after failed patterns, it’s better to spend time building your own decision-making framework—based on fundamentals rather than illusions of technicals, based on your risk tolerance rather than FOMO. Some opportunities do appear in the gaps left by pattern failures, but only if you are alive to see that moment.