Regarding ZEC's recent performance, many people have become somewhat confused by the news of institutional accumulation. Cypherpunk Holdings has indeed increased its holdings to 290,000 ZEC, but does this mean it's a good time to follow suit? Not necessarily.

I conducted a six-month analysis of holdings and price correlation and discovered an interesting pattern: every time this institution increases its holdings, it does so during a correction period after a price surge. More notably, after accumulation, there is often a deeper decline. The underlying logic is actually simple — using relatively small amounts of capital to create a bullish market expectation, guiding retail investors to buy in, while the institution gradually offloads its chips at higher prices.

From a technical chart perspective, ZEC's situation is even more straightforward. On the daily chart, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages have fully formed a downward alignment pattern, commonly known in the industry as a "bearish crush," which essentially means short-term rebound momentum is severely lacking. The MACD indicator has already shown a death cross, which in traditional technical analysis is usually seen as a sign of weakness.

The privacy coin sector itself was indeed a hot trend, but one cannot judge the right time to buy based solely on hot concepts. The real opportunity should appear when technical indicators show clear improvement and the chip structure improves, not after the news of institutional accumulation is released. The market always tests who can see through appearances and identify the true supply and demand relationships.