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Regarding ZEC's recent performance, many people have been discussing this issue in the group. As a former representative of privacy coins, its decline indeed warrants attention. Many ask me, with such strong technology, why has it fallen even more sharply? Today, I will analyze this from two perspectives: technical and capital.
First, looking at the technical aspect. ZEC's candlestick chart has recently shown a continuous downward trend, setting new lows every day, and trading volume is also increasing. This "volume-driven decline" pattern is a relatively clear signal in technical analysis. Additionally, examining the moving averages, the short-, medium-, and long-term averages are all arranged downward, forming a standard bearish alignment. Once the long-term trend is established downward, it is very difficult to see a reversal in the short term.
Next, from the capital perspective, which is the key issue. Recent data shows that ZEC has been experiencing daily net outflows, with the outflow amount trending larger. In comparison, the so-called institutional accumulation is minimal and insufficient to offset this large-scale withdrawal. To use an analogy, it's like a water tank where water is dripping in on one side but a drain is opening on the other, and the final result can only be the water level continuously dropping.
The signals from these two dimensions combined reflect the market's true attitude toward the current state of this coin. How to interpret this trend depends on each individual's risk tolerance.