比特币四年周期已失效：ETF、机构资金和政策冲击重塑市场

2026-01-01 17:20:08

【币界】比特币的四年周期已经成为过去式了。曾经那套规律性的模式，现在基本失效。为什么？原因其实挺多的。大资金的ETF产品一上线，机构投资者蜂拥而入，彻底改变了市场节奏。宏观层面的流动性波动，加上政策变化的不确定性——这些因素叠加在一起，把比特币从那个相对可预测的轨道上生生拉下来了。现在比特币的走势，更多受到这些新变量的左右，很难再用老办法去推测了。

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AirdropLicker

· 7h ago

It's all institutions disrupting the market; the old cycle theory should have retired long ago.

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MissedTheBoat

· 7h ago

Haha, the four-year cycle is invalid? I told you, I couldn't predict it long ago.

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CryptoWageSlave

· 7h ago

The four-year cycle is gone, and with the arrival of ETFs, everything is chaotic. Institutional big players call the shots, and retail investors can only follow the trend.

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CountdownToBroke

· 7h ago

Damn, once the ETF comes, the whole rhythm gets messed up. Who can still predict this?

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