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The market in 2026, I lean towards a slow bull. The rebound trend of the big C wave will continue to unfold next year.
From a policy perspective, financial regulatory authorities have recently sent many positive signals—clarifying the need to intensify efforts to attract insurance funds, social security funds, pension funds, and other medium- and long-term capital into the market. The continuous influx of these incremental funds will not only solidify the market valuation bottom but also provide sufficient momentum support for next year's market.
**Several key judgments on the trend for next year:**
The rebound triggered in December from 3815 points is likely the final stage of an intermediate upward wave (c3-5 wave). Based on this logic, the rebound range is most likely around 4250 points (±50 points), expected to end by late March or early April. The subsequent April-May period will see adjustment pressure, with the target around 3850 points (±50 points). By June, the c5 impulsive wave will start, and this rally could be quite fierce—the expected peak of the full-year rebound is in the 4600-4900 point range.
**How to view the main industry themes?**
**AI application deployment is the focus this year**
After many years of infrastructure development, by 2025, hardware sectors (CPO, optical communications, liquid cooling, computing power, etc.) have seen疯狂投入 from global capital. Honestly, the gains in this direction may have already overextended the market’s rally for the year. So what’s next? Naturally, application-side efforts will take the stage.
AI still needs to be implemented into specific application scenarios. This is precisely our strength—turning technology into usable products. So don’t just focus on chips and servers; pay more attention to companies that can truly put AI into practical use. Tech companies appearing on large platforms like the Spring Festival Gala, with high traffic, may have short-term capital gaming opportunities. But the long-term focus is: after spending so much money on hardware, how can software products generate benefits? This is what needs to be validated in 2026.
**Humanoid robot industry chain, we have a first-mover advantage**
From industry progress, humanoid robots are somewhat like the lithium battery new energy sector in 2015—imagination space is large enough, and the industry chain is sufficiently long. The key is to focus on several directions: visual understanding capabilities, humanoid robot hardware, and intelligent driving solutions. Especially in the humanoid robot sector, 2026 will see mass production and delivery validation, with foreign humanoid robot production plans already in place, which will drive substantial growth across the entire industry chain.
**The consumer sector will be an important mainline throughout the year**
The topic of consumption is broad—clothing, food, housing, transportation, entertainment—all are included. The main task this year is to stimulate consumer demand, and this effort will run throughout the year. If the economy hits a turning point, the consumer sector will be the first to benefit. Plus, with overall weak performance in 2025, the consumer rebound in 2026 could be quite significant.