Speaking of this matter, it's truly incredible! ETH starts to "soften" whenever it approaches $4000. On the surface, it seems to be due to weak news or major players shaking out the market, but few people look at the truth on the chain. Those whales who entered the market five or six years ago hold chips with ridiculously low costs, and they are the real mountain pressing down on ETH.

Having been involved in the crypto market for eight years, I can responsibly say: if you don't study the distribution of chips, analyzing ETH is like a blind man feeling an elephant. A bunch of newbies stare at the red and green candles on the K-line chart every day, unaware that the true manipulators of short-term行情 are precisely those ancient chips with costs you can't imagine. I spent months digging through on-chain ledgers, and the data I整理出来 is particularly heartbreaking:

Those holding ETH for 5 to 7 years have an average cost of only $378. Think about it, even if they sell at $4000 now, that's more than 10 times the profit. Who wouldn't be tempted? Even more terrifying is that these whales' timing for cashing out is so precise it's shocking. In March 2024, when ETH just topped $4000, ancient whales dumped $600 million in a single day, directly shocking the market. By June, ETH surged again past $4000, and this time the whales were even more ruthless, with daily selling pressure soaring to $1 billion, causing the行情 to turn downward. Fast forward to 2025, especially in September and October—those "fossil-level" chips held for 7 or even 10 years became active, with daily selling pressure generally exceeding $500 million. The pattern is clear: when ancient chips come out, ETH inevitably hits a阶段性顶部.

That said, it's not all bad news...