Interest rate cuts are no longer news.

In December 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates by another 25 basis points. Logically, this should have energized risk assets. But the reality is—markets are a bit bored. Why? Because this is the third consecutive rate cut, and over 85% of the market has already priced it in.

This is the strange thing about modern financial markets: prices never reflect "what just happened," but rather "relative expectations, whether they exceeded or fell short of expectations."

Since three rate cuts in 2026 have become the market’s baseline scenario, crypto asset players should focus not on the rate cuts themselves, but on how global assets will be re-priced under the new liquidity environment—what role will Bitcoin, the "catfish," play in this round of the game?

**Expectations are the invisible hand**

How 2026 unfolds depends on what can break current expectations. Three forces are at play here.

First is the Federal Reserve’s dot plot. Every quarter, when this is released, it’s like an X-ray revealing the Fed’s internal thoughts. Currently, the FOMC members are quite divided—expectations for the end-of-2026 interest rate range from 2.5% all the way up to 4.0%, leaving nearly six rate hikes worth of room. What does this split mean? It indicates policy paths are full of uncertainty. Each update to the dot plot could trigger a re-pricing of the interest rate trajectory, potentially having a bigger impact than a single rate cut decision.

Economic data is the second force. Lagging statistics often surprise— or rather, shock.