2026-01-02 22:22:52

The S&P 500 closed at 6845.5 points in 2025, up 16% over the past 12 months. Seeing this significant rally in the US stock market, Wall Street institutions are starting to set expectations for 2026—Bank of America is more conservative with a target of 7100 points; Deutsche Bank is more optimistic, calling for 8000 points. Calculations suggest the potential upside ranges from 3.72% to 16.87%.

What does this mean? Analysts generally expect the S&P 500 to achieve four consecutive years of double-digit growth. It sounds quite attractive, but there is a cautionary point worth noting. Adam Thernquist from LPL Financial reviewed historical data: after the index has already gained over 15% in the short term, the average return in the following few years tends to be around 8%, often accompanied by several pullbacks. In other words, when gains are large, it might be time to be cautious.

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WhaleWatcher

· 10h ago

Up 16% and still want to keep doubling? Historical data shows that after a short-term surge, the return rate drops to 8%... I still believe in holding the position.

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OffchainOracle

· 10h ago

It has risen so much and still wants to go higher. History will provide the answer. The previous cycle was also hyped up like this.

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StablecoinSkeptic

· 10h ago

Are you not aware of how fast it's rising? History has already shown this, yet you're chasing the high. The question is,

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RugPullAlarm

· 10h ago

After a 16% increase, you still want to see two consecutive double-digit gains? I looked at historical data, and on average, this kind of situation is followed by an 8% increase, with several major pullbacks in between. Wall Street is starting to hype again, which is called optimistic in a nice way, but frankly, it's just creating FOMO.

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GhostInTheChain

· 10h ago

Ha, a 16% increase, and now someone is calling for 8000 points... This wave feels a bit shaky. It's a repeat of history; after a surge, it's probably time to run. This pace of the S&P, 8000 points? I always feel like it's a bit exaggerated. A pullback is the real shakeout; just lie back and wait. Two-digit growth for four consecutive years? Is it a dream or a real thing? Short-term gains of 16%, long-term average of 8%... I see the gap clearly. Things that rise too fast usually have a harsh correction; how is this rule so accurate? Deutsche Bank's prediction of 8000 points feels a bit over the top.

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