Many investors have been watching candlestick charts during this period, chasing gains and selling off at dips, always hoping to catch the next explosive coin. But if you truly want to live better in the next two years, you need to shift your focus from short-term market fluctuations to more macro risk signals — the US Treasury market is brewing a potential crisis, which could have a greater impact on the entire crypto ecosystem than any single project risk.

Let's look at some data first. According to publicly available records from the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, between 30% and 33% of US-held bonds will mature within a 12-month window in 2025-2026. In other words, at least $4.1 trillion in debt will need to be rolled over or refinanced within one year in 2026. If we broaden the scope, the short-term debt refinancing pressure in the coming years could even reach $7 trillion to $12 trillion.

This number might not evoke an immediate sense of scale. Looking from another perspective: $4.1 trillion is roughly equivalent to 30 trillion RMB, a magnitude that exceeds the total annual GDP of many countries. The more critical issue is the cost of financing. These bonds were issued when interest rates were near zero, so their actual cost was minimal. But now? Market benchmark interest rates have risen above 4%. This means that when the US government uses new debt to pay off old debt, the cost per dollar will increase significantly.

Some may ask: This is America's issue, what does it have to do with the coins I hold? Actually, it’s highly relevant. The global financial system is highly interconnected. As the primary reserve currency, the US dollar and US Treasuries are the most important safe-haven assets worldwide. Their fluctuations can influence the crypto market through multiple transmission mechanisms. If the US Treasury market experiences liquidity or confidence crises, risk assets will be the first to suffer. Cryptocurrencies, as high-risk and highly volatile assets, have historically been most vulnerable under financial stress.

A more realistic logical chain is this: To roll over this massive debt, the US government will inevitably push up Treasury yields, which will attract risk capital from around the world to withdraw from the crypto market and shift toward what is perceived as safer assets like US Treasuries. Meanwhile, if rising Treasury yields lead to a stronger dollar, the appeal of dollar-denominated crypto assets will decline. Coupled with potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve, liquidity conditions will tighten significantly, which could be fatal for markets that rely on capital inflows.

Of course, this doesn’t mean the crypto market is doomed. But those projects and investors who rely on short-term hot spots and capital rotation need to start seriously considering their risk exposure. Assets with solid fundamentals and ecosystems with real use cases may be relatively resilient, but even they will find it hard to remain unscathed in extreme scenarios.

So instead of spending every day researching a new coin’s technical details or a big influencer’s holdings, it’s better to spend some time understanding macroeconomic cycles. The US debt issue is not some conspiracy theory or alarmist talk; it’s a fact written into federal budgets and congressional records. If the scenario we discuss materializes in 2026, it will be too late to regret. Starting now to adjust your investment structure and risk management strategies is the wise move.