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The real heartbreak of $ETH actually isn't in the decline. The truly frightening thing is—you're completely unaware that the main force has already quietly started to run away.
To identify when the main force is withdrawing, these two features are enough.
**First Trick: High-volume breakout, fake move**
Currencies like $ZEC and $FIL experience the same situation. The main force first pushes up with high volume or simply opens significantly higher, then begins to oscillate with huge volume. On the surface, it looks like the price has stopped rising, which industry calls "volume-driven self-uptrend."
This move is especially effective—volume-driven rise attracts a wave of follow-up traders. The main force then seizes this window to sell at a good price.
But here’s the problem. The main force's chips are stacked mountain-high, making it impossible to clear all positions with a single order. So what do they do?
Next comes the performance. Oscillate up and down at high levels, fake a few moves, creating a false impression that "the main force is still absorbing." Retail traders see this repeated fluctuation, their psychological defenses gradually weaken. Today’s rise and fall, the main force dumps some, then in the early morning of the next day, it plunges, and in the afternoon, it rebounds violently in a V-shape—see? It can’t go down. Retail traders relax their guard again and again, adding positions each time. Like the "boy who cried wolf" story, after enough tricks, no one cares whether it’s real or fake. During this repeated consumption, the main force smoothly completes their distribution.
**Second Trick: The crazier the show at the top**
This feature has the highest accuracy but is a bit more complex to understand. Summarized in six characters: *The higher the top, the stronger*.
You might ask—if the main force is distributing, why does it seem to get stronger and stronger?
The reason is quite straightforward. The main force holds massive chips, impossible to unload all at once. Distributing is even more painful—they need to keep the price high to maintain retail confidence while secretly selling their own holdings. If they slip up and ruin the act, causing retail traders to run early, the main force might not be able to exit at the high levels themselves.
So the main force is forced to repeatedly smash the price down and then lift it again, even continuously hitting new highs to stimulate the greed of retail traders. The closer to the top, the more the main force has to perform. This is reflected in the chart as still appearing strong. In technical indicators, it shows as divergence after oscillation, or divergence after continuous adjustments and new highs.
**Divergence and divergence are exactly how this happens.**