2026-01-02 23:23:13

In 2026, the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, reversing the global liquidity environment, and the cryptocurrency market landscape changes accordingly. Among many tracks, the prediction market is becoming the most exciting investment direction.

According to CoinShares data, the popularity of this track is extraordinary—monthly platform trading volume in 2025 skyrocketed from less than $100 million at the beginning of the year to $13 billion. Behind this level of growth is the risk appetite and liquidity released during the rate-cutting cycle.

**Why is the prediction market so hot?**

Simply put, the core of the prediction market is turning collective wisdom into tradable probabilities. It encourages users to bet on real-world events through economic incentives—such as election results, policy changes, and more—resulting in probability signals that are surprisingly accurate. Data shows prediction accuracy can reach 60%-80%, far surpassing traditional polls.

Because of this high accuracy, prediction markets are gradually upgrading from mere speculative tools to information infrastructure. Institutional investors are beginning to use them as decision-making references, officially ushering the entire track into the "institutionalized" era. Strategic layouts by traditional financial giants further confirm this trend.

The rate-cut environment brings dual benefits to prediction markets: abundant liquidity makes it easier for funds to enter, and rising risk appetite encourages users to explore new trading products. This is precisely why trading volume can surge dramatically.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

DataBartender

· 5h ago

13 billion in trading volume, this data really can't hold up anymore, how can it rise so quickly The prediction market is indeed reliable this time, with accuracy surpassing polls Rate cuts + liquidity, it's that simple and straightforward Institutions are entering the market, does this mean the prediction market is about to take off? Accuracy rate of 60%-80%? Why is it more accurate than polls? That’s unscientific When liquidity loosens, people start to mess around, and the prediction market makes big profits Is 2026 really the year of rate cuts? I just don’t understand the Federal Reserve’s tactics

View OriginalReply0

FrogInTheWell

· 5h ago

13 billion monthly trading volume... This prediction market really isn't a joke --- Collective intelligence monetization? Sounds good, but what's the essential difference from gambling? --- Is the market really stable with institutional entry? Or is it another feast for the little guys? --- The interest rate cut cycle is here, liquidity is so reckless, I’m stunned --- 60-80% accuracy? Who would believe that’s much better than polls? Feels a bit fishy --- The prediction market is so hot, should I buy the dip or run away... --- With this growth rate of 13 billion, the next bubble is probably at this level --- Really considering this as infrastructure? Seems a bit overthought --- Abundant liquidity and rising risk appetite, typical of too much money burning a hole in the pocket --- Election policies and these bets, in the end, big funds still call the shots

View OriginalReply0

ProbablyNothing

· 5h ago

13 billion in trading volume, this number is a bit outrageous. It seems like all retail investors are just following the trend and getting chopped up.

View OriginalReply0

VitalikFanAccount

· 5h ago

$13 billion? Damn, this growth is really insane. No wonder institutions are rushing to buy the dip.

View OriginalReply0

LidoStakeAddict

· 5h ago

130 billion in trading volume? No way, the prediction market is really taking off --- With interest rate cuts, all the money is pouring into new tracks. This wave of institutional follow-the-leader is incredible --- 60-80% accuracy? Much more reliable than polls. No wonder institutions are starting to use it as a decision-making tool --- From a speculative tool to an information infrastructure, this upgrade path is quite impressive --- Liquidity is so abundant, I also want to jump into the prediction market and give it a try --- 130 billion vs 100 million, is such a huge increase real or not? --- Turning collective wisdom into tradable probabilities—this concept is actually pretty awesome --- In a low-interest-rate environment, risk appetite soars, everything becomes easy to trade --- Institutionalization of prediction markets is a big trend. Those who got in early are definitely making a lot --- If this accuracy rate really is 60-80%, traditional finance should be panicking

View OriginalReply0