Fake accumulation: CryptoQuant analyst exposes the illusion of whale buying; the truth is that balances are decreasing

The market has been buzzing recently about Bitcoin whales making large purchases, but CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno has delivered a sobering conclusion: it’s all an illusion. On the surface, whale balances appear to be increasing, but in reality, this is a visual illusion caused by exchanges consolidating Bitcoin into a few addresses. The true situation is the opposite — whale balances are actually decreasing.

The Root Cause of Market Misinterpretation

Surface Data vs. Actual Data

Most people see whale data showing an increase in balances, but the main reason is the centralized storage method of exchanges. Exchanges tend to hold large amounts of Bitcoin in a few addresses, making their balances look substantial, which leads to the mistaken belief that whales are accumulating.

However, CryptoQuant employs a special data processing method — excluding all exchange addresses. Using this true data, the results are completely different:

• Whale (addresses holding over 1000 BTC) balances are decreasing
• Addresses holding 100-1000 BTC show the same downward trend
• These addresses mainly hold spot ETFs

This indicates that institutions and individuals holding large amounts of Bitcoin are actually continuously selling rather than buying.

Data Comparison: Two Worlds

What Does This Discovery Mean

Consistent with Bear Market Judgments

This data aligns perfectly with CryptoQuant’s recent bear market assessment. Julio Moreno pointed out in multiple analyses that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market about two months ago. One key piece of evidence is the change in whale behavior. According to relevant data, whales sold approximately $15 billion worth of Bitcoin throughout 2025, creating persistent selling pressure.

Structural Market Pressure

When whales are selling rather than buying, it means:

• The market lacks large players to absorb the sell-offs
• Retail investors and small to medium institutions need to take on these sales
• The bottom support may be weaker than expected
• Downward risk is accumulating

Technical Indicators Also Confirm

This is corroborated by the recent appearance of the “death cross” signal. Bitcoin’s 10-week and 50-week moving averages formed a death cross on December 8. Historical data shows that after this signal appears, Bitcoin has declined by 67%, 54%, 53%, and 64% in 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022 respectively.

Why Is This Misinterpretation So Common?

On-chain data analysis requires professional tools and methods. Most market participants see aggregated data rather than processed, true data. The existence of exchange addresses itself distorts the truth of whale data. Without excluding these addresses, it’s easy to draw incorrect conclusions — thinking whales are buying, when in fact exchanges are just moving assets around.

Summary

CryptoQuant’s analysis exposes an important market misconception: the so-called “whale accumulation” simply does not exist. The real situation is that whales are continuously selling. This discovery offers two key insights: first, the market needs to interpret on-chain data more cautiously; second, the whale selling behavior and CryptoQuant’s predicted bear market bottom in the $56,000–$60,000 range reinforce each other, suggesting downside pressure may be greater than market expectations. For investors, this is a reminder — trust the data, but interpret it correctly.