The first three days of the year saw Bitcoin fluctuate between 89,000 and 90,000, with intense discussions in the crypto community. Many people in the groups are frequently shouting "可能要调整" ("may need adjustment"). But a careful look at market trends reveals that the logic behind this oscillation is quite clear—everyone is waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve.

Institutions and large funds are not unwilling to buy up the market, but no one dares to make large positions when the Fed's policy direction is unclear. The divergence in the dot plot is currently quite extreme. Some predict only one rate cut this year, others believe at least two cuts are necessary, and some conservatives simply say "we'll stay on the sidelines for now." This uncertainty and the resulting wait-and-see attitude have a much greater impact on the market than actual bad news.

Next, three key dates in January will essentially determine the market rhythm for 2026:

**January 9th Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate** are the first hurdles. Strong employment data means limited room for the Fed to cut rates, putting pressure on risk assets; weaker data could reignite market expectations for rate cuts. At the same time, expectations for a new Fed Chair announced by Trump are also worth watching—if a hawkish candidate is chosen, the market may face short-term pressure; conversely, a dovish candidate could send more optimistic signals.

**January 13th CPI Data** is equally critical. If inflation continues to moderate, expectations for rate cuts can keep fermenting; but if inflation rebounds, the market's rate cut fantasies may need to be reined in.

**FOMC Meeting on January 27-28** is the real key. This meeting will update the dot plot and economic forecasts, essentially setting the policy tone for 2026. The market could either surge significantly or face substantial adjustments based on this.

Currently, mainstream forecasts see Bitcoin prices at the end of the year generally between 120,000 and 170,000, with more aggressive analysts even calling for 200,000 to 250,000. Spot ETFs are still steadily inflowing, and some sovereign funds are quietly building positions, all indicating strong confidence in the long-term outlook.

But in the short term, you really need to be mentally prepared. Volatility is unavoidable, and feeling annoyed is normal. The key is not to be shaken out this month. Patience in January is the most valuable asset—wait until these three "bullets" are fired, and the market direction will become clear. By then, either it will be a euphoric bull market or at least you'll understand where the risks lie.

The long-term logic for 2026 remains unchanged; Bitcoin's growth expectations are still intact. Right now, it's a roller coaster—fasten your seatbelt, endure this month's fluctuations, and there should still be plenty of opportunities ahead.