#预测市场发展 Seeing the public sale launch of Space, my first reaction was the prediction market boom of 2021. Back then, similar projects emerged one after another, raising increasingly large amounts of funding, but very few actually survived and achieved meaningful trading depth.

This time, Space’s design approach actually gave me a bit of a bright spot. 50% of platform revenue is used for buyback and burn, and this flywheel mechanism essentially ties their long-term interests to token holders — it’s not a new concept, but few projects execute it well. The key is that they are backed by the UFO team, which has successful experience in community distribution and consensus building. In 2021, UFO reached the top 100 on CMC with a peak market cap of $1.5 billion, showing they know how to build an ecosystem.

From a technical perspective, the combination of 10x leverage, zero Maker fees, and a centralized limit order book addresses the perennial liquidity issues in prediction markets. But honestly — high leverage and zero fees are not particularly novel; the real question is whether they can generate sustainable trading volume. Many projects in the past relied on incentives to boost trading volume, only to die once those incentives were withdrawn.

This public sale uses a variable token distribution model, increasing linearly from a $50 million FDV to $99 million, with all participants trading at the same price. On the surface, it looks "fair," but in reality, this model uses complexity to protect early participants’ interests — the earlier you enter, the higher your tier, and the better your long-term return expectations. This implicitly reflects a judgment about whether the project can go the distance.

I’ve seen too many projects decline due to token distribution imbalances. From the ICO bubble in 2017, to the DeFi craze in 2021, and now, only projects with real use cases, continuous community incentives, and self-regulation can survive through multiple cycles. Whether Space can become such a project depends not on how much funding they raise, but on whether trading depth can develop and whether user retention can break through the historical bottleneck of prediction markets.

As the saying goes — "Those who truly use, trade, and build should become owners." But history shows that a beautiful vision and actual execution often lie across a wide river. Watching this project, I feel both hopeful and cautious.