#比特币价格预测 Arthur Hayes is once again turning bullish. This time, the logic is that the Federal Reserve's RMP is equivalent to a new version of QE, with liquidity release leading to Bitcoin returning to 124,000 and even pushing towards 200,000. At first glance, it sounds convincing, but I have to be honest—this guy is bullish on the surface, yet during yesterday's rebound, he quietly transferred 508 ETH to Galaxy Digital. This move is quite interesting.

Often, the most aggressive bullish voices are backed by the most rational position reductions.

In the short term, the prediction of volatility between 80k-100k still has some reference value; this range is indeed a critical level. But do I agree? I need to wait for a few signals to confirm. First, observe the actual implementation of the Federal Reserve's RMP and the market's response time. Second, watch the real holdings of mainstream institutions—statements and wallet addresses often tell different stories.

Recently, while reviewing the follow-up records of top traders, I found a pattern: when the predictions of big V's diverge from their on-chain actions, it’s often the best contrarian signal. Hayes's current situation falls into this category. It’s recommended to reduce positions first and consider chasing longs only after a confirmed break above 100,000, so as not to be trapped by emotionally driven expectations.